England’s next Euro 2016 qualifying game is just about the easiest game an international side can have – part-time minnows San Marino, at home. The Three Lions may rest some of their key players and give younger stars a chance to shine but realistically Roy Hodgson could field an under-18 side and expect to get the job done.
San Marino are ranked 208th by FIFA, with no side beneath them in the global rankings and with just one win and three draws in their history they will simply be looking to avoid humiliation at Wembley. They have faced England four times previously, including in qualifying for the last World Cup, and their goal difference over those games is -25, reason enough to view the home side’s odds of just 1/100 (with BetVictor) as decent value.
If you think an embarrassing upset is in store then the draw is priced at 20/1 with Sky Bet whilst San Marino are available at odds of 100/1 with Betfred to pull off the shock of the century. Realistically though we feel this is a game in which almost all punters will eschew the match odds in favour of more appealing markets.
Whilst England’s game following this one against Estonia is hardly a huge test, there is no doubt that their visit to Tallinn will be considerably more difficult. As such we feel sure that Hodgson will place the emphasis here on ball retention, looking at new players and trying new systems. Whilst he should start with a strong XI we would expect early substitutions to be made and with the players unlikely to be too excited by this game, especially in front of what is sure to be a small crowd, it might not be quite the stroll some expect.
England will win, of that there is little doubt, but with the visitors sure to have the edge when it comes to motivation, a home win by “just” three, four or five is certainly a distinct possibility.
Betting Tips
- Under 5.5 goals – Odds of 16/11 with Ladbrokes for this match to see fewer than six goals look worth taking given the home side are sure to experiment and will make several changes at half time if the game is secure. San Marino are undoubtedly poor but they always fight hard, especially when playing away somewhere as prestigious as Wembley, and we could see them keeping this one down to four or five.
- Danny Welbeck to score at anytime – Welbeck will start the game and with confidence high he looks a great bet to score here. Odds of just 4/11 with Coral may seem short but we can’t see the Arsenal forward failing to register.
- Danny Welbeck to score first – At longer odds of 3/1 with Bet365 Welbeck also appeals to get the opener, although Wayne Rooney will also be keen to score as he looks to edge closer to Bobby Charlton’s England scoring record.